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Is Alberta’s cost of living still an advantage for out-of-province transplants?

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By Devon Murphy

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Special to Financial Post

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Ever-present debt weighed on Sophie Hayes and her spouse when they lived in Ottawa — just another obstacle to achieving the shrinking dream of home ownership in Ontario. “It was impossible to save any money at all,” said the 28-year-old. “It felt like it was never going to change.” The couple even moved from their one bedroom, no laundry apartment in the capital’s core to a smaller town to access a better cost of living, but paycheque-to-paycheque life remained the norm.

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Then they heard Alberta calling.

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Hayes’s spouse, who works in the hearing industry, started seeking employment elsewhere. “Edmonton was pretty attractive,” said Hayes. With higher salaries available for both their careers — Hayes works for the Métis Nation of Alberta in a social work role — and rental options that offered more for their budget, the choice was clear. In October 2023 they made the move.

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“Now I don’t have to have two jobs,” she said.

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Hayes’ story isn’t unfamiliar to Albertans, who over the past two years have seen interprovincial migration peak, and only recently start to slow. The influx has had an impact on inflation in the province, with wage growth stagnating while the rising price of goods keeps pace with the rest of the country. Out-of-province hopefuls who made the move for a better cost of living are now sensing that shift, but was relocation still worth it?

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‘It depends where you’re coming from’

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In 2023 Alberta saw interprovincial migration like Statistics Canada has never seen since the data became available. And numbers have remained high until now. In the third quarter of 2024, the province saw 22,732 people migrate from other provinces and territories, the vast majority from Ontario and British Columbia. But Alberta has been hit hard by inflation, trailing only behind British Columbia in the 12-month price change indicated by the latest basket weight data from Statistics Canada’s December 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI).

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According to Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Credit Union Central Alberta, much comes down to a matter of perspective. Albertans “feel their purchasing power has gone down significantly in recent years, and we can see in the data that incomes are lower than pre-pandemic,” said St-Arnaud. “But when we compare ourselves to the rest of the country, we still have higher income and lower housing costs. When you compare, we’re doing quite well.”

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This disparity is the result of what St-Arnaud calls “the great convergence.”

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He said, “Our wages and income are growing at a slower pace than the rest of the country because we’re continuing to adjust to the post-oil bust reality,” he said. “Income and wages have converged to the national average.” That, combined with the speedy rate of population increase has meant higher rates of unemployment — in December 2024 the overall Canadian unemployment rate and Alberta’s kept pace at 6.7 per cent. And with a greater demand for work comes a further weakening of wage growth.

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Part of that convergence is also a simple equilibrium between cities. When the median sale price for a detached home in Toronto at the end of 2024 was $1,235,000, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, it’s only a matter of time before people seek new options, driving up the lower prices offered elsewhere.

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There is the other matter of perspective — the Alberta advantage only exists now for those coming from certain provinces. “Someone from Vancouver or Toronto [who moves to Alberta] will get a little bump in their income, and the prices are slightly lower than in those cities,” said St-Arnaud. “But if you take someone from Quebec, it’s the other way around.”

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Double the rent or double the value

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Megan Wake, 27, moved to Canmore, Alta., from Montreal in 2018, following an offer to coach a ski racing team. In the more than three years she lived there, she found the combination of seasonal work and the high cost of living made saving money impossible. “I think I moved every three months for three years,” she said.

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The Alberta Living Wage Network calculated that Canmore residents in 2023 needed $38.80 an hour, assuming 35 hours a week, in order to “cover the actual costs of living in their community.” According to ZipRecruiter, the average hourly wage in Canmore is $19. The town was also Alberta’s most expensive place to live in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

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“It was the first time I was paying rent and buying groceries so I just assumed it was a normal price,” said Wake, who moved back to Quebec for school. “Now my rent is half, my groceries are less than half. Thinking about all the money I spent just living was insane,” she said. “In Montreal, I’m saving money and not sacrificing my quality of life.”

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For those coming from more expensive markets, the experience is just the opposite. Lauren Strapagiel and her now-wife moved from Toronto to Calgary in 2022 and haven’t looked back. After both started working from home during the pandemic, the pair was motivated to find a larger place to live. “We were already paying $2,600 a month for a shoebox,” she said. “A mortgage on a moderately-priced house would be less expensive, but there’s no such thing as a moderately-priced house there. It became very clear we had to get out of Toronto.”

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They ended up purchasing a four-bedroom detached home in Calgary, paying less than the selling price of their former one-bed-plus-den rental in Ontario. Strapagiel is a content marketer and her wife, Amanda, works in life science technology. Since both are professionals well-established in their careers, their concern wasn’t about cutting down on their cost of living, but getting more for their money.

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“We wanted to go somewhere to have a better lifestyle around the same budget,” said Strapagiel.

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And while she notices premiums on expenses like car insurance, lower taxes and no looming threat of a Toronto eviction more than make up for the difference. “It was absolutely worth it, zero regrets,” she said. “There are certain things I miss about Toronto but not in a way where I want to move back.”

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Caroline Pang, a residential realtor in Calgary, has seen that same sentiment over and over in the past few years. “I met a lot of young people who were pretty excited at what they could buy,” she said. “Toronto real estate has gone through so many booms and busts, so people coming from those markets are used to a stressful buying scenario. We’re a bit of a younger sibling here.”

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And while, according to St-Arnaud, housing remains a major source of inflation in the province, Pang doesn’t think the rise in home prices is enough of a deterrent for those coming from other major cities. “As long as Calgary continues to be significantly cheaper than Toronto or Vancouver, it will always be an option for young professionals. We will always be that option for people who want a better quality of life.”

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Growing pains

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That continued desirability is a double-edged sword for Albertans who are struggling with inflation’s effects as a result of so many new residents. However, experts like St-Arnaud expect population growth to slow dramatically in 2025. There has already been a decrease in interprovincial migration to the province, down 17.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2024 compared with that same quarter the previous year.

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Still, “the frustrations have been the same coast to coast for the past two years,” said St-Arnaud. “Part of it is we’re equalizing with the rest of the country. We’re catching up in some ways.”

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For now, those who saw the opportunity for a better cost of living and quality of life are still seeing the Alberta advantage clearly. “It’s just nice to not worry so much about your finances all the time,” said Hayes.

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“I think it was worth it to move here for me. I see myself staying. But even if I didn’t want to stay in this province, I don’t think I could afford to move anywhere else.”

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