Albertans evenly split on Danielle Smith's handling of U.S. tariffs, says poll

Albertans’ views of Premier Danielle Smith’s handling of possible U.S. tariffs are evenly split, with the issue of middling importance in the eyes of voters, states a new Leger poll.

The online survey of 1,002 people conducted Jan. 24 to 26 shows 36 per cent of respondents disapprove of Smith’s approach to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of import taxes, while 35 per cent back her and 30 per cent expressed neutrality.

It closely mirrors respondents providing a 38 per cent approval of the government’s tariffs stance — the exact same number opposing it.

Some Albertans — and Canadians — have credited Smith for showing considerable hands-on leadership on the issue, while others have accused her of breaking Canada’s united front by pushing to have the energy sector exempted from any possible tariffs.

The issue came out of nowhere in January to become the fifth largest concern among those polled, with eight per cent of respondents viewing the topic as the top priority.

Health care, inflation, the economy and housing affordability — in that order — were ahead of tariffs as Albertans’ top concerns.

That saw-off on tariffs likely reflects the current political divide in Alberta largely drawn between the NDP and UCP, but also a sentiment that views Smith’s approach in separate components, said Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president for Central Canada.

“They see her defending Alberta’s energy interests, which is good, but they also see her trying to make nice with (U.S. President) Donald Trump, which is not so good,” said Enns, adding that mostly explains the 30 per cent neutral tally.

“She’s going down to Mar-a-Lago to get her picture taken and he’s saying horrible things about Canada.”

On Jan. 12, Smith paid an unannounced visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida retreat and reportedly discussed trade issues with the then-president-elect.

The 25 per cent tariffs on most Canadian exports — which were delayed for 30 days by Trump on Monday — only reached the second tier of concern among Albertans because they’ve yet to be imposed, he said.

But if they do take effect and affect the cost of daily goods such as groceries, said Enns, that could quickly change.

“The actual impact on regular people from tariffs is largely unknown, but if there’s another spike in prices, it’s going to cause those concerns to rise all over again,” he said.

And although Albertans appear split over Smith’s handling of the tariff threat — characterized by shying away from criticizing Trump, leaning toward diplomacy and even meeting some U.S. trade demands — the issue is likely to boost UCP popularity overall, said Enns.

“It’s sucking up a lot of airtime for the premier, she’s seen as leading the charge on this and it’s very challenging for the Opposition to get in on this issue,” he said.

Even the even 38 per cent split among Albertans on how the UCP government is tackling the tariffs question is a relatively decent showing, said Enns, “because on a lot of issues, they tend to net out negatively.”

NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi has accused Smith of being a weak link in Canada’s united front against Trump by undermining Canada’s negotiating position.

Smith has emphasized the need to strengthen Alberta’s border with Montana to meet Trump’s demands that Canada stop the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., though less than one per cent of the drug seized on its way into the U.S. has been from the north, and the smuggling of illegal guns into Canada is seen by many as a far bigger issue.

Trump has said Canadian energy will be subject to a lower, 10 per cent tariff — something for which Smith and her supporters have taken at least partial credit.

Leger says a probability sample of the poll’s size would have a margin of error of +/-3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

@BillKaufmannjrn